Monday Briefing: UK and US Weekly Market Report 23.06.2025
| Market snapshot (week ending 20.06) | |||||
| Index | Close | Week | Market | Close | Week change |
| FTSE 100 | 8,774.65 | -0.86% | Gold Futures | 3,452.80 | -1.94% |
| FTSE 250 | 21,148.50 | -0.12% | Bitcoin (22.06) | 101,016.00 | -4.34% |
| FTSE AIM 100 | 3,657.33 | -0.58% | UK 10yr Yield | 4.54% | -0.02% |
| S&P 500 | 5,967.84 | -0.15% | CBOE Volatility (VIX) | 20.62 | -0.96% |
| Dow Jones | 42,206.80 | 0.02% | Euro STOXX 50 | 5,233.58 | -1.08% |
| NASDAQ 100 | 21,626.40 | -0.02% | GBP/USD | 1.3467 | -0.73% |
Source: ShareScope
Markets Recap
Geopolitical tensions took centre stage last week as the US entered the Israel-Iran conflict, marking a significant escalation. In the early hours of Sunday morning, the US conducted a series of bombings on three Iranian nuclear enrichment sites, with President Trump reporting that they had been “completely and totally obliterated”. Oil markets opened slightly higher Monday but have since fallen over 5% as investors look past the risk to supply. Brent crude oil is however up over 15% so far in June, its strongest monthly return in four-and-a-half years. The major concern now is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a vital maritime passage through which around 20% of global oil supply flows. Any disruption would likely send oil prices soaring, reigniting inflationary pressures and injecting fresh volatility into global markets. The impact on equities was also more muted than first feared, with US equities marching higher as traders look through the events in the Middle East.
The only major economic data release in the US last week was retail sales, which fell 0.9% MoM, driven by a slowdown in auto sales. As expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates for the fourth consecutive meeting and reiterated its cautious stance, with Chair Jerome Powell warning that President Trump’s tariffs will likely cause inflation to rise over the summer.
UK inflation moderated slightly in May, with a YoY reading of 3.4% compared to 3.5% a month prior. The Bank of England also left rates unchanged as the central bank grappled with lingering inflation and weak growth. Elsewhere, MoM retail sales dropped 2.7% in May, the steepest monthly decline since late 2023, fuelling concerns over the strength of consumer demand and the broader recovery.
Notable Corporate Earnings Reports
In the UK, industrial equipment hire company, Ashtead, reported full year results. At $10.8 billion, revenue was flat on the previous year, whilst EPS was down slightly at $3.47 vs. $3.66 in 2024. The stock retreated 3% into the weekend.
Housebuilder, Berkeley, dropped 8% upon the earnings announcement last week. Pre-tax profit came in at £529 million, below last year. Management also stated that there is no meaningful recovery underway yet in the housing market and also expect another fall in profits for 2026.
In the US, Accenture reported a healthy beat on both revenue and EPS. However, a 6% decline in new bookings in the three months to the end of May due to elevated economic and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as pause in hiring new consultants caused a 7% drop in the stock.
Despite a marginal quarterly revenue miss, Kroger climbed 10% after the supermarket lifted its full year same-store sales growth to a range of 2.25% to 3.25%.
US housebuilder, Lennar, beat on top line but missed on earnings, sending the stock down 4% on the day. It was also a similar story for restaurant operator, Darden, which slipped in trading on Monday due to fall in profits.
CarMax stock jumped following 42% earnings growth, whilst Jabil also finished higher following robust growth in its data centre segment.
Upcoming Data Releases
There are no economic data releases in the UK this week.
In the US, the week starts with the Fed Chair’s Testimony, in which Jerome Powell will defend the central bank’s data-driven stance in an increasingly unpredictable macro environment. He will likely face scrutiny from members of the Republican Party for not cutting rates amidst a backdrop of moderating inflation.
The final estimate of US Q1 GDP growth (QoQ) will be reported on Thursday. The current estimate shows a 0.2% contraction from the final three months of last year.
May’s US personal income is expected to rise by around 0.3–0.4%, easing from April’s stronger 0.8% gain. Consumer spending is forecast to increase by about 0.2–0.3%, roughly in line with April’s modest 0.2% uptick.
May’s Core PCE is expected to rise to about 2.6 % YoY, slightly above April’s 2.5 %, reflecting a modest pickup in underlying inflation. On a monthly basis, it’s likely to hold steady near 0.1 %, matching April’s calm pace.
Upcoming Corporate Earnings Reports
In the UK, only Babcock report earnings this week. Investors will be focused on whether management reinforces its raised full‑year guidance and highlights organic growth in nuclear and marine segments amidST strong backlog trends.
In the US, Nike, FedEx and Micron Technology all report earnings this week.
Nike investors will be watching for clarity on inventory levels and forward guidance as the new CEO addresses the downturn in revenue (expected to be approximately 15% YoY) and ongoing turnaround efforts.
For FedEx, the key risk is whether earnings reveal continued margin pressure despite a reported 9% profit growth forecast, given ongoing cost restructuring and weakened volume.
For Micron, all eyes are on whether it can deliver another strong beat, with analysts expecting profits to more than double YoY.
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