Monday Briefing: UK and US Weekly Market Report 16.06.2025
| UK & US Equities (week ending 13.06) | Notable Markets (week ending 13.06) | ||||
| Index | Close 13.06 | Week | Market | Close 13.06 | Week change |
| FTSE 100 | 8,850.63 | 0.14% | Gold Futures | 3,452.80 | 3.17% |
| FTSE 250 | 21,173.30 | 0.08% | Bitcoin | 105,559 | -0.18% |
| FTSE AIM 100 | 3,678.74 | 0.31% | UK 10yr GB Yield | 4.56% | -0.09% |
| S&P 500 | 5,976.97 | -0.39% | CBOE Volatility (VIX) | 20.82 | 24.15% |
| Dow Jones | 42,197.80 | -1.32% | Euro STOXX 50 | 5,290.47 | -2.57% |
| NASDAQ 100 | 21,631.00 | -0.60% | GBP/USD | 1.3566 | 0.29% |
Source: ShareScope
Markets Recap
US equity markets pulled back slightly last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq taking a pause to digest May’s inflation data. The market cap weighted Dow Jones Industrials Index fell over 1%. May’s CPI headline inflation showed a 2.8% year-on-year rise, up slightly from the month prior. Core inflation remained steady at 2.8% for a third consecutive month. This muted inflation print likely did little to alter the path of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which continues to signal no imminent adjustments. Markets now modestly expect just a single cut by year-end. The US 10yr Treasury yield retreated slightly into the weekend, and risk assets were mostly resilient on the news.
UK GDP contracted by 0.3% in April on a month-on-month basis, the steepest decline since October 2023. The drop was driven by reduced services and manufacturing output amid US trade uncertainty. Concurrently, unemployment ticked up to 4.6%, underscoring cooling labour market conditions. Markets responded with a weaker pound, falling gilt yields, and increasing speculation about interest rate cuts, even as current BoE guidance remains cautious.
A sudden round of Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets on Friday caused oil prices to surge nearly 7%, triggering a spike in energy stocks and a dip in airlines. Iran retaliated shortly after, launching a wave ballistic missiles. Energy prices stabilised in trading on Monday with no disruption expected to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, equity market volatility increased, but resilience prevailed as investors weighed actual impacts to supply.
Notable Corporate Earnings Reports
In the UK, Halma shares were given a lift after the FTSE 100 constituent posted record full year revenues and issued upbeat guidance.
In the US, Oracle shares finished the week 24% higher as a result of an earnings beat as well as robust growth in its cloud and AI infrastructure business segments. One particular highlight was the 40%+ growth forecast in the cloud business.
Despite beating estimates and raising guidance, Adobe’s shares fell as the market was underwhelmed by the lack of new AI product catalysts, whilst analysts questioned the sustainability of its growth agenda.
Upcoming Data Releases
US retail sales data will be published on Wednesday. Expectations are for a slight month-on-month contraction, driven mainly by decreased auto sales resulting from trade tariffs, which have forced many consumers to put off large ticket purchases.
UK inflation for May will be reported on Wednesday, followed by the BoE rate decision on Thursday. Prices jumped by 3.5% last time out, with housing and utilities, food, and transportation proving to be some of the stickier areas for inflation, so particular attention will be paid to these segments. Investors will also be monitoring developments closely in the Middle East, with any sustained move higher in energy prices almost certainly flowing through to other areas of the economy.
The BoE is expected to hold rates steady on Thursday, with the central bank having a lot to take into consideration. In addition to April’s contraction in GDP, the Monetary Policy Committee will have to assess May’s inflation print on Wednesday, the potential for a spike in energy prices, and of course the ongoing uncertainty of Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
The Federal Reserve’s FMOC also meet this week. Despite intensifying pressure and personal attacks from Donald Trump on Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady once again, with uncertainty over how tariffs will impact prices being the reason.
UK retail sales for May will also be published on Friday. April saw a 5% increase year-on-year, the strongest growth in over three years. This was driven mainly by food sales as a result of warm weather.
Upcoming Corporate Earnings Reports
In the UK, Ashtead and Berkeley Group report earnings this week.
Ashtead reports on Tuesday. Investors will be focused on rental demand in North America and how well the company is maintaining fleet utilisation and margins in the face of cost pressures. Forward guidance and any revisions to growth expectations will be key drivers for the share price.
Berkeley Group reports Friday, with markets looking for updates on new home completions, private sales momentum, and the impact of higher build costs on margins. Guidance on future sales, land development, and capital returns will be closely watched given the challenging housing backdrop
In the US, Accenture, Kroger, Lennar, Darden, Jabil and CarMax all report this week.
Accenture’s investors will focus on whether demand for AI and cloud-focused services remains strong, as clients continue digital transformation projects.
Key areas to watch in Kroger’s report include same-store sales trends and margin progress as the retailer navigates rising costs, with analysts anticipating slight revenue degradation but an improved outlook from its last guidance. Updates on its digital grocery strategy, particularly growth in online orders and efficiency gains, will be pivotal for sentiment and investor confidence.
Homebuilders are typically scrutinised for order book strength and backlog growth. Lennar’s Q2 release will likely reveal whether demand remains resilient amid higher interest rates and affordability pressures. Investors will also monitor margins and pricing, particularly how effectively the builder is passing increased costs to buyers without hurting sales.
For Darden, attention will be on comparable-restaurant sales trends and margin resilience, especially guest counts and check-size data as consumer spending softens. Management commentary regarding cost controls, along with any updates to share repurchases or dividend policy, will impact the stock’s direction.
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