Week in Review: 28th April- 2nd May
The winning streak continues. As of Friday, the FTSE 100 has produced its longest winning streak of consecutive up days for all time.
| UK & US Equities (week ending 2/5) | Notable Markets (week ending 2/5) | ||||
| Index | Close 2/5 | Week | Market | Close 2/5 | Week |
| FTSE 100 | 8596.35 | 2.15% | Gold Futures | 3,243.00 | -2.62% |
| FTSE 250 | 20240.51 | 3.22% | Bitcoin (Friday) | 97670 | 4.04% |
| FTSE AIM 100 | 3438.2 | 6.10% | UK 10yr GB Yield | 4.52% | 0.04% |
| S&P 500 | 5686.67 | 2.92% | CBOE Volatility (VIX) | 22.68 | -2.16 |
| Dow Jones | 41433.17 | 3.29% | Euro STOXX 50 | 5285.19 | 2.88% |
| NASDAQ 100 | 20091.49 | 3.39% | GBP/USD | $1.3280 | -0.24% |
Observation of the Week:
April Fools!
Maybe April was just a bad joke! If you took yourself off to live in a cave at the end of March and returned to check your portfolio on the start of May, you would surmise that nothing major really happened. In what has been the most volatile financial markets since the COVID 19 pandemic, the major indices are largely unchanged for the month of April. UK investors would have seen a modest 0.5% fall and US investors would have seen a slight appreciation in their portfolio with the NASDAQ, S&P 500 and the Dow now erasing the sharp plunges from the start of April.
With the amazing swing by markets, perhaps there’s credence to the saying, ‘don’t just do something, stand there!’ We are certainly not out of the woods yet, particularly as global investors can’t unsee the political risk occurring in the US. The US Dollar is weakening, and foreign investors are looking for new homes for their capital.
However, when we look a bit further back, the financial market impacts of Donald Trump’s first 100 days of his second term as President are apparent. The US Dollar is now almost 10% weaker against major trading partners since inauguration day.
Source Reuters.
U.K. Market Performance
The G.O.A.T winning streak continues! The FTSE 100 was up 2.15% for the week, and up every day for the last consecutive 15 days. Marking the longest daily winning streak of all time, going back to when data was available since Jan 1984. It is also the largest percentage gain over 15 days since November 2020. The UK benchmark is just about back to it’s highest level since the 2nd of April. Now up 5.18% since the start of the year.
FTSE 100 Movers
Gainers: Intercontinental Hotels, BAE Systems, AstraZeneca, Informa, Whitbread, Endeavour Mining, International Consolidated Airlines, Smith & Nephew
Losers: Glencore, Marks & Spencer, Lloyds, Standard Chartered, Rio Tinto, Segro, BT Group
Notable Corporate Earnings:
UK Companies: HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, NatWest, Standard Chartered, AstraZeneca, GSK, Associated British Foods, BP & Shell
BP posted Q1 profits of $4.5 billion, down from $5 billion a year earlier, but above analyst expectations, buoyed by a $1.75 billion share buyback. Shell also outperformed with $5.6 billion in adjusted earnings, surprising positively versus the $5 billion consensus and announcing another $3.5 billion in buybacks. CEO Wael Sawan noted that Shell could maintain annual buybacks of $6-7 billion even if oil fell to $50 per barrel, underscoring its financial resilience. Overall, market reactions were muted as investors digested weakening YoY earnings, but applauded shareholder returns. An article published by Bloomberg over the weekend suggests that BP may be in Shell’s sights as a takeover target.
Associated British Foods, owner of Primark, guided for low-single-digit sales growth in 2025 amid sluggish like-for-like sales in the UK and Ireland. Nonetheless, the company remained confident in Primark’s positioning, especially in international markets.
AstraZeneca delivered a strong quarter, growing revenue 7% year-on-year to $12.5 billion with EPS of $1.90, well above forecasts, supported by its oncology and rare disease treatments. GSK posted EPS of 43.1 pence on sales of £7.36 billion, beating estimates of 37.3 pence EPS and £7.07 billion revenue, driven by vaccines and specialty medicines. It upgraded full-year guidance and outlined plans to launch 12 new products beginning in 2025.
U.K. banks reported a robust quarter, driven by strong net interest margins and capital discipline. HSBC delivered an annualised return on equity of 21.4% for H1, and announced a $3 billion buyback while maintaining a CET1 ratio of 15%. Despite a slight dip from last year, results underscored stable profitability. Barclays beat estimates with a 12% increase in pre-tax profit to £2.3 billion, aided by strong investment banking revenues. Lloyds posted a 10% rise in profits to £1.9 billion, while NatWest impressed with 36% earnings growth, achieving an 18.5% return on equity and raising full-year guidance. Standard Chartered also outperformed, with a 10% rise in profits to $2.1 billion and once again, driven by strength in wealth management and global markets, though impairments rose modestly.
As you can imagine, Shein is halting its London listing preparations due to tariff and de minimis rule uncertainty.
U.S. Market Performance
S&P 500 Movers
Gainers: Arista Networks, Carrier Global, Trane Technologies, Seagate Technology, Southwest Airlines, Quanta Services, DexCom, Howmet Aerospace, Microsoft
Losers: Becton Dickson, Targa Resources, First Solar, Super Micro Computer, Revvity, Tyson Foods, Motorola
Macroeconomic Data
Economic Growth: The GDP Growth Rate showed a 0.3% decline in economic growth for the last quarter. The part of the equation that led to the negative print was a strong increase in imports, as consumers pulled forward purchases of foreign made goods, particularly autos, in anticipation of rising prices due to tariffs. This may well correct itself in the next quarter as imports dry to a halt, but all may result in further problems down the line, as hard data starts to catch up to the soft data in the assessment of the state of the US economy.
Inflation: The Federal Reserve prefers the use of the PCE Price Index as a gauge of inflation which was stagnant over the month, Core PCE Index was also stagnant, the annual change in the Core PCE Inflation rate was 2.6% down from 3% in February which was in line with expectation.
Consumer Spending notched higher in March. Inflation- adjusted consumer spending rose 0.7% in March, the best result since early 2023. Once again possibly owing to the bringing forward of major purchases before tariff induced price rises. Rising consumer spending and lower inflation, suggests the US economy was in a good place before the tariff furore.
Labour Market: After DOGE fired approximately 280,000 federal workers, we are yet to see the data come through in Jobless Claims. This indicates that many may have been rehired, living off severance pay or are awaiting the courts to decide their employment status, suggesting there’s likely to be a rise to come. There was strong jobs growth in April and the unemployment rate held steady; nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 after the prior two months’ advances were revised lower, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Production: U.S. manufacturing activity was in contraction for the second straight month in April after a brief growth period at the start of the year as stiff tariffs on imports began to choke demand, prompting firms to slash output and shed workers more urgently, also against the backdrop of elevated costs.
The ISM manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ index dipped 0.3 percentage point to 48.7 in April after slumping 1.3 points to 49.0 in March. It was still above the median economist forecast of 47.9.
Property Market: Home prices rose 4.5% year on year down from 4.7% prior result and economist forecasts, according to the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index.
Notable Corporate Earnings
Energy: ExxonMobil reported Q1 earnings per share of $1.76, modestly beating expectations, though revenue growth remained lacklustre. Chevron’s EPS fell year-on-year to $2.18 but above $2.14 estimates and revenue was below expectations. The company announced plans to reduce its stock buybacks in Q2 to between $2.5 billion and $3 billion, down from $3.9 billion in Q1, while maintaining its full-year buyback outlook of $10 billion to $20 billion. Shares saw a slight increase following the earnings release.
Technology, AI & Semiconductors: US tech firms broadly outperformed. Microsoft posted strong cloud-driven results, with earnings beating expectations. Amazon delivered $1.59 EPS on $155.67 billion in revenue, both ahead of estimates. However, AWS revenue of $29.27 billion missed forecasts and its cautious Q2 operating income guidance of $13–$17.5 billion spooked investors, sending shares down after hours. Apple slightly beat expectations, and iPhone sales rose 1.9% year-on-year to $46.84 billion despite tariff pressures. The company flagged an expected $900 million impact from US import duties this quarter. Among semiconductors, Qualcomm, NXP Semiconductors, and Cadence Design Systems exceeded expectations on strong demand for automotive and AI chips. Garmin beat on sales but missed on adjusted EPS, leading to an 8% stock drop. Enterprise players like Atlassian and Cognizant also topped estimates, benefiting from cloud and digital transformation trends.
Consumer Goods & Services: Consumer facing companies delivered mixed results, often influenced by macro pressures and changing spending patterns. Starbucks, and Domino’s posted mixed results, with earnings largely in line but a notable decrease in sales revenue across the fast-food chains. McDonalds saw a significant fall in quarterly revenue, a rare occurrence, indicating there may be some serious pulling back in US consumer spending. Coca-Cola exceeded revenue and earnings forecasts thanks to resilient demand. CEO, James Quincey, expects tariff implications to be ‘manageable’. Cadbury’s parent Company Mondelez also exceeded earnings expectations and reaffirmed full year guidance on the back of price rises of their products and new product rollouts. The falling price of cocoa has also helped. Kraft Heinz and Yum! Brands reported more subdued results, facing margin pressures from input costs. Airbnb and Booking Holdings both saw strong bookings growth but flagged softer forward guidance due to macro uncertainty in European travel. Market reaction in the sector was bifurcated: premium brands with pricing power fared better, while low margin or travel-sensitive names saw more cautious investor responses.
Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals: Pfizer and Amgen produced solid results. Eli Lilly outshining peers thanks to strong demand for obesity and diabetes drugs, however slashed its full-year earnings outlook due to acquisition-related charges, while Q1 results surpassed market expectations. The shares slumped 10%. With regard to tariff impacts on the industry, CEO David Ricks said “The announced tariffs currently in effect do not materially change Lilly’s 2025 financial outlook. However, the expansion of tariffs in other geographies or increases in retaliatory tariffs would have a negative effect on Lilly and for our industry.”
Financial Services: Visa, Mastercard, and S&P Global reported solid beats on resilient consumer spending and strong data subscription revenue. PayPal and Robinhood also beat, though forward guidance was more tempered. Market reactions were broadly positive, especially for firms with strong capital returns and visibility on margins.
Industrials & Transports: Industrials posted upbeat earnings amid infrastructure tailwinds. Caterpillar and Honeywell beat estimates, citing robust demand for construction and industrial automation. General Motors outperformed on strong US auto sales and EV production momentum. UPS showed signs of stabilising volume trends. Eaton Corporation delivered a strong quarter, benefiting from high demand in power management systems. The sector outlook remains optimistic, though companies noted ongoing headwinds from interest rates and selective supply chain pressures.
May public holidays have been observed in the UK and many Asian countries.
The US market has opened the week slightly lower.
The US Dollar continues to weaken. The Taiwanese Dollar surged by 6.5% over two days, marking its largest rally since the 1980s. This appreciation was fuelled by speculation that Taiwanese authorities might allow the currency to strengthen to facilitate a trade deal with the U.S. The rapid rise prompted major life insurers to assess the impact on their overseas investments. The Australian dollar also strengthened, reaching a five-month high.
Week Ahead: 28th April to 2nd May 2025
Market Themes to Watch
- Headline driven week ahead (again): tariff and trade commentary to dominate. Particularly any signs of progress on trade deals, China talks and digestion of the new ‘Hollywood’ tariff.
- Interest Rate Decisions (UK & US): The BoE will meet on Thursday and the market is anticipating a 25bps cut. The BoE’s accompanying statement will be closely scrutinized for insights into future monetary policy directions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week is a focal point. While the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, market participants will closely analyse the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future policy moves.
- Corporate Earnings: US earning season continues with some further big names due to report their Q1 earnings.
- Follow effects from a falling US dollar: The global currency landscape is experiencing shifts, with the U.S. dollar’s dominance being challenged due to aggressive economic policies and financial sanctions. In Taiwan, there are issues emerging with pension and institutional holdings of US treasuries that are depreciating by the day in local currency. Same is occurring in Korea, and Australian superannuation funds have had significant unhedged exposures to US equities. UK investors will also be questioning their unhedged exposures to dollar denominated investments as sterling rallies against the greenback.
Upcoming Economic Data – U.K.
Bank Holiday Monday
Interest Rates: Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcement – Thursday, 8th of May. The BoE is widely expected to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, responding to economic pressures from recent US-imposed tariffs and a slowdown in global growth. Released alongside the rate decision, the Monetary Policy Report will provide updated economic forecasts. Analysts anticipate downward revisions to GDP growth projections and potential adjustments to inflation expectations.
UK International Reserves Data – Tuesday: The latest figures on the UK’s international reserves will be published, providing insights into the country’s financial position
UK Construction PMI – Wednesday
NIESR GDP Tracker – Friday
Property Prices: Halifax House Price Index Thursday and RICS House Price Balance Friday
Upcoming Economic Data – U.S.
Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (Wednesday)
ISM Services PMI: Monday (came in slightly better than expected and still in expansion).
Balance of Trade: What used to garner little interest, will now be topical data for the White House with the size of the US trade deficit to show impacts of tariffs on imports and exports.
Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday will see the Initial and continuing jobless claims and while we haven’t seen any movement in this to date, any sharp uplift in this number will be an indicator of deterioration in employment.
Notable Corporate Earnings
Berkshire Hathaway: A Market Barometer
In Q1 2025, Berkshire Hathaway reported a 14.1% decline in operating earnings year-over-year, reflecting challenges in its insurance and rail segments. Despite this, the company’s cash reserves grew to a record $348 billion, as it sold a net $1.5 billion in stocks during the quarter, indicating Buffet’s bearishness in current market conditions. Notably, Berkshire did not repurchase any shares in Q1, a shift from the $2.6 billion in buybacks during the same period last year. Warren Buffett announced he will step down as CEO by the end of 2025, concluding a remarkable 60-year tenure. He endorsed Greg Abel, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman overseeing non-insurance operations, as his successor. Buffett will remain as Chairman of the Board to ensure a smooth transition.
AI, Cloud & Software
The Q1 season has been favourable for cloud and AI infrastructure, with continued enterprise demand and hyperscaler capex providing strong tailwinds. This week, Palantir is expected to post EPS of $0.13, up over 60% YoY, supported by momentum in government and commercial AI deployments. AMD is forecast to deliver EPS of $0.61, driven by a 30% YoY increase in revenue, reflecting accelerating demand for its MI300 AI chips in the data centre segment. Arista Networks should post another strong quarter, aided by hyperscaler and AI networking investments. Cloudflare (EPS: -$0.05) and HubSpot (EPS: $1.53) will show whether elevated valuations in the cloud space are justified by durable SMB and enterprise growth. AppLovin’s report will be scrutinised heavily following allegations of fraud at the company.
Mobility, Platforms & Digital Services
Consumer-facing platforms and transport stocks are under scrutiny amid mixed demand signals and cost pressures. Ford is expected to report EPS of $0.44, down from $0.63 a year ago, with attention on EV margins and global sales. Uber (EPS: $0.51) is poised to show a strong swing to profitability amid higher ride volumes and a stabilising freight segment. DoorDash is also anticipated to return to profit with EPS of $0.39, while investors watch for news on its reported bid for Deliveroo. Carvana remains a high-beta play, with a small expected profit and a focus on continued operational discipline after a volatile 2024.
Industrials & Infrastructure
The industrials sector has had a solid start to earnings season, thanks to infrastructure demand, energy transition themes, and supply chain resilience. Johnson Controls is forecast to post EPS of $0.76, with a modest YoY gain, supported by commercial HVAC and building automation demand. CRH, a bellwether for global construction activity, is expected to show steady volume growth in North America with benefits from US infrastructure spend, despite softer demand in Europe. Cummins (EPS: $4.82) continues to ride demand for power systems and trucking engines. Emerson Electric and TransDigm round out the week’s coverage in industrials, with investors focusing on automation and aerospace aftermarket strength.
Energy & Utilities
Energy companies have largely exceeded expectations this season, benefiting from capital discipline and shareholder returns. Diamondback Energy is forecast to deliver EPS of $4.07, with strong free cash flow and production metrics. Occidental Petroleum is expected to post EPS of $0.73, as investors await guidance on debt reduction and buybacks. The Williams Companies, a major natural gas infrastructure provider, is expected to post EPS of $0.58, slightly up YoY, with attention on LNG export exposure and stable pipeline fee revenue. Duke Energy, Vistra, and Constellation Energy will provide a window into utility pricing, grid modernisation, and nuclear performance in a volatile rate environment.
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals
Healthcare remains a solid earnings performer, though the market has punished any guidance missteps. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is expected to post EPS of $3.69, underpinned by consistent cystic fibrosis drug sales. Zoetis continues to benefit from steady growth in companion animal health. Cencora (EPS: $3.78) will offer insight into pharmaceutical distribution margins and demand normalisation post-COVID.
Asset Managers & Financial Services
Asset-light models and alternative assets are driving earnings momentum in financials. Ares Management is expected to post strong distributable earnings on continued private credit inflows. Brookfield (EPS: $0.96) should show growth across its renewables, infrastructure, and real estate platforms. TPG, expected to post EPS of $0.47, will provide an update on recent investments in energy transition and infrastructure. These firms are benefiting from the broad shift to private markets, though fee compression, mark to market valuations and exit timing remain risks.
Commodities, Agri & Food Supply Chains
Companies exposed to agricultural markets and commodity-linked supply chains have faced a more challenging earnings season as margins compress and demand normalises post-pandemic. Archer Daniels Midland is forecast to report EPS of $1.41, down from $2.09 YoY, reflecting reduced oilseed crushing margins and weaker ethanol pricing. Investors will look for commentary on grain volumes, energy input costs, and the resilience of its nutrition segment. Tyson Foods, another key player in the food value chain, is expected to report EPS of $0.40, with particular focus on ongoing margin pressure in beef and poultry. The firm has been battling high input costs and shifting consumer preferences, and markets will closely watch its pricing strategy and supply chain commentary for signs of improvement as adverse conditions plague beef production.
Consumer Platforms, Travel & Media
Consumer and leisure names continue to diverge based on pricing power and exposure to global travel trends. Marriott (EPS: $2.20) should post strong RevPAR growth and healthy bookings due to its international expansion efforts. Guidance will give clues as to the hospitality industry’s health in the US as global tourist numbers shrink and a depreciating dollar makes American travel abroad more costly. Disney is set to report EPS of $1.21, with investor focus on Disney+ profitability, ESPN spinoff speculation, and Parks performance. The Trade Desk is expected to post EPS of $0.32, highlighting the recovery in digital ad spend, while Electronic Arts will provide read-throughs on mobile gaming trends. Tapestry (EPS: $0.56) and Warner Music round out the week in consumer, offering insights into luxury retail resilience and music streaming revenue, respectively.
DISCLAIMER This article is for information purposes only and no part of it or its contents are deemed to be nor should be taken as advice. It does not constitute recommendations to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Past performance of investments is no guide to future returns and you may get back less than you invested. Capital at Risk.