Week in Review: 10–14 March 2025
Top o’ the morning to ya! During the week of the 10th March 2025, global financial markets experienced significant volatility with US indices entering correction territory influenced by escalating trade tensions, economic data releases and a potential US government shutdown. Major equity indices in US and UK had a strong positive performance on Friday negating what were large falls during the week. Gold reached the US$3000/oz mark during the week.
| UK & US Equities (week ending 14/3) | Notable Markets (week ending 14/3) | ||||
| Index | Close | Week | Market | Close (Fri) | Week |
| FTSE 100 | 8632.33 | -0.55% | Gold Futures | $3001/oz | +2.84% |
| FTSE 250 | 19995.59 | -0.67% | Bitcoin (Friday) | $83939 | -3.29% |
| FTSE AIM 100 | 3316.62 | -0.99% | UK 10yr Govt Bonds | 4.67% | +0.02% |
| S&P 500 | 5638.93 | -2.28% | CBOE Volatility (VIX) | 21.78 | -1.64 |
| Dow Jones | 41402.00 | -3.07% | Euro STOXX 50 | 5417.89 | -1.89% |
| NASDAQ 100 | 19704.64 | -2.46% | USD/ GBP | £0.7729 | -0.13% |
Observation of the Week:
Volatility is classified as elevated when the VIX index reaches 27 or higher. On the 10th of March, 2025, the CBOE Volatility Index breached this 27 point mark.
Observations of VIX Spikes above 27 points since 2003
Methodology: Using closing prices of the S&P 500 index since the 2nd of September 2003 when the CBOE Volatility Index methodology changed until the of 12th March 2025. Calculating average 3 month and 12 month returns and probabilities of negative returns following days the VIX reach 27 points or more. Comparing to average 3 month and 12 month returns and probabilities of a negative returns of the S&P 500 on days when the VIX index is greater than 27 to all days on the S&P 500.
U.K. Market Performance
The FTSE 100 index faced a turbulent week, primarily due to global trade uncertainties and domestic economic concerns. The index declined approximately 0.55% after a good end to the week pared losses after dropping by over 2% on Monday and Tuesday. That’s down two consecutive weeks, and down 2.87% from it’s high on the 3rd of March, but up 5.62% year to ate. The mid cap FTSE 250 fell by two thirds of one percent while the FTSE Small Cap Index only fell by 0.2% for the week after a 1% bounce on Friday.
FTSE 100 Movers
Gainers: Vodafone: +7.76%, National Grid: +4.75%, BP: +4.38%
Losers: IAG: -11.69%, Tesco: -9.84%, Diageo -6.96%
Notable Macroeconomic Data:
· The preliminary GDP estimate for January fell 0.1%.
· Industrial and manufacturing production both fell
· The RICS House Price Balance data indicated a smaller than expected gain in house prices.
Notable Corporate Earnings
· Persimmon: The U.K. housebuilder reported a rising year on year profit with a slight miss in earnings per share not enough to dismay investors given they are well positioned for an improving home building, infrastructure and government policy background.
· Legal & General Group: The financial services company posted stable earnings, with its asset management division showing resilience amid market volatility.
U.S. Market Performance
U.S. equity markets were notably impacted by escalating trade tensions and economic data releases.
· S&P 500: The index entered correction territory, falling more than 10% from its recent high, closing the week down approximately 2.3% after a big fightback on Friday.
· Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): The DJIA mirrored the S&P 500’s downturn, shedding about 3% over the week.
· Nasdaq Composite: The tech-heavy index declined around 2.4% over the week after being down as much as 5% for the week on Thursday with significant losses in major technology stocks muted by a strong Friday.
Gainers: Intel.: +18.65%, Super Micro Computer: +15.95%, Applovin: +14.35%
Losers: Teradyne Inc.: -18.28%, The Trade Desk: -17.30%%, Delta Airlines: -13.44%
Macroeconomic News
· U.S.: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.8%, allaying inflation and fed watcher’s fears.
· Trade Tensions: The U.S. administration confirmed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, China and new 200% on French champagne and wine leading to retaliatory measures and heightened market volatility.
· Consumer Sentiment Index published by the University of Michigan dropped to 57.9, the lowest level since November 2022, from a final reading of 64.7 in February. Below expectations of 63.1.
Notable Corporate Earnings
· Oracle Corporation: Reported slight miss against earnings and revenue estimates but there were some positives including 49% revenue growth in its cloud services unit. The ramp up of its AI infrastructure build out continues to accelerate after signing $48b in contracts over the quarter, excluding contracts relating to Stargate. Down on earnings announcement but closed the week relatively flat.
· Adobe Inc.: Delivered slight beat of analyst expectations on earnings demonstrating resilience in the face of a rapidly changing tech environment, but didn’t upgrade guidance for the next quarter. This wasn’t enough to shake investor apathy due to stiff competition and AI transformation patience, hence the stock dropped almost 14% on Thursday’s session before a bounce on Friday.
Week Ahead: 17–21 March 2025
Market Themes to Watch
o Interest Rates
o Interest Rates
· Federal Reserve Meeting: Investors will closely monitor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for insights into future interest rate decisions amid inflation and recession worries.
· Bank of England: The upcoming meeting will be scrutinised for any policy shifts in response to the recent GDP contraction. Rates expected to remain on hold at 4.5%.
o Trade Developments: Ongoing trade negotiations and potential new tariffs will continue to influence market sentiment and volatility.
o Chinese Stimulus: There will be a Monday news conference by the CCP policymakers expected to announce measures to boost domestic consumption. This will have significant impact on the fortunes of trading partners.
o Upcoming Economic Events
· U.K. Unemployment Data: A slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.5% is expected and may give the BoE food for thought regarding interest rates.
· U.K. GfK Consumer Sentiment: measures the level of optimism that consumers have about the performance of the economy in the next 12 months. Estimates guide a -21.0 score, down from -20.0 last month.
· U.S. Retail Sales: February retail sales data will be published on the 20th of March, offering further clues into the state of the American consumer.
· US FOMC and BoE Interest Rates Decisions: Both expected to remain on hold but give dovish remarks in light of fragile economies and markets.
· Employment Data & Manufacturing data will also feature in the week’s discourse.
o Upcoming Earnings
· Technology & Digital Transformation: Accenture, PDD Holdings, Micron Technology, Tencent, Jabil – The technology sector remains a key area of interest for the market as companies navigate shifting demand, AI adoption, and supply chain disruptions and investors seek to read the tea leaves for future valuations. Accenture’s earnings will provide insights into enterprise IT spending and digital transformation trends which will be highly scrutinised. PDD Holdings’ report will highlight Chinese e-commerce performance, while Micron Technology’s results will indicate semiconductor market conditions. Tencent’s earnings will be watched for regulatory impacts and platform monetisation, while Jabil’s results will reflect broader electronics manufacturing trends.
· Consumer Spending & Retail Trends: Nike, Darden Restaurants, General Mills, Wetherspoons, Trustpilot, Carnival – Consumer demand remains uncertain, broader retail and discretionary spending could remain under pressure. Nike has been a laggard over the past few years after increased competition, perceived lack of product innovation and weakness in China. Management will hope to tell of a change of fortune but comes at a time of high anxiety. General Mills’ results will indicate whether demand for consumer staples remains stable amid cost pressures. Hospitality sector updates from Darden Restaurants (Olive Garden & LongHorn Steakhouses in the U.S.) and Wetherspoons will shed light on consumer sentiment, particularly in discretionary dining, while Trustpilot’s earnings will provide insight into e-commerce trends and consumer trust in online services. Carnival’s earnings will be a further test, with travel company earnings facing a questions over consumer sentiment worries.
· Trade, Industry & Supply Chains: FedEx, Lennar Corporation – Industrial and trade-sensitive companies are facing a complex environment of supply chain constraints and shifting global demand. FedEx’s earnings will reveal whether global shipping demand is stabilising. The housing market remains under pressure, and Lennar Corporation’s results will offer insight into the impact of higher mortgage rates on the real estate and homebuilding sector.
· Financial & Asset Management Resilience: Prudential, Phoenix Group, M&G PLC – With ongoing market volatility, financial firms will provide key insights into asset management trends, insurance sector stability, and investment flows. Prudential, Phoenix Group, and M&G PLC’s earnings will highlight how these firms are managing risks tied to inflation, interest rate fluctuations, and pension fund performance. Phoenix Group reported this morning with 2024 adjusted operating Profit Before Tax of £825m vs analysts forecast of £734m, according to a company-compiled consensus seeing it as one of the most actively traded stocks in London this morning and a rise of 7.54% at time of writing.
Conclusion
Trade wars, recession fears, fed watch, volatility spiked, the S&P 500 entered market correction territory, the US government avoided a shutdown – last week threw up plenty of curve balls and non-stop thrills and spills. We aren’t likely to see a quiet week this week either. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, as well as the U.K. inflation report and whether central bankers will continue the jawboning to assuage concerns. Meanwhile the tariff debate looms large, with businesses and policymakers weighing the potential impact of trade barriers on global supply chains. With monetary policy, economic data, and geopolitics colliding, markets remain on edge. The US reporting season for Q4 2024 is largely all wrapped up and amidst the short term volatility, long term investors should be buoyed by strong corporate earnings, which are the ultimate determinant of long term share price movements.
“May your pockets be heavy and your heart be light, May good luck pursue you each morning and night! Happy St. Patrick’s Day!”