Week in Review: 14th-17th of April
| UK & US Equities (week ending 17/4) | Notable Markets (week ending 17/4) | ||||
| Index | Close 17/4 | Week | Market | Close 17/4 | Week |
| FTSE 100 | 8275.66 | 3.91% | Gold Futures | 3,328.40 | 2.58% |
| FTSE 250 | 19250.01 | 3.97% | Bitcoin (Friday) | 84627 | 0.96% |
| FTSE AIM 100 | 3219.48 | 3.44% | UK 10yr GB Yield | 4.58% | -0.19% |
| S&P 500 | 5282.7 | -1.50% | CBOE Volatility (VIX) | 29.65 | -7.91 |
| Dow Jones | 39142.23 | -2.66% | Euro STOXX 50 | 4933.9 | 3.06% |
| NASDAQ 100 | 18258.09 | -2.31% | GBP/USD | $1.3288 | 1.56% |
Observation of the Week:
Have you noticed anything different about your Easter Eggs over the past couple of years? Shrinkage is a thing! Due to sharply rising cocoa prices since 2024, the cost of goods sold for chocolate producers has gone up significantly. The big players in the confectionary game have resorted to reducing the size of Easter eggs and increased prices in a phenomenon of ‘shrinkflation’.
The price rises from 2023 to 2025 were caused by a series of poor harvests from West Africa due to heavy rainfall and diseased crops. West Africa accounts for almost three quarters of global coca production, sending global supply spiralling.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy from our brokers at Saxo Bank said that typically, it takes six to 12 months for higher cocoa prices to flow into higher chocolate prices on shop shelves. As you can see from the price action, the cocoa price has come down, but this year’s chocolate eggs would have been produced using coca prices from late last year.
Cocoa Futures ICE Continuous Contract
Source Bloomberg
According to research compiled by Which?
| Product | Size in 2024 | Size now | Price in 2024 | Price now | Shrinkflation (price/ 100g) |
| Terry’s chocolate orange mini eggs (Pouch) | 80g | 70g | 99p | £1.35 | 56% |
| Twix White Chocolate Egg | 316g | 258g | £5 | £6 | 47% |
| Kit Kat Chunky Milk Chocolate Egg | 129g | 110g | £1.50 | £1.50 | 17% |
| Cadbury Crème Egg 5 pack (200g) | 200g | 200g | £2.62 | £4 | 53% |
| Stamford St Co block (Sainsbury’s) | 100g | 100g | 50p | £1.03 | 106% |
Source Which?
The good news? Chocolate lovers will see relief soon as coca prices have come down significantly owing to a few factors. Global demand has fallen in response to higher prices, the tariff impact on markets has seen a slide in commodity prices and better growing conditions in Cote D’Ivoire and Ghana has led to increases in inventory. The cocoa price is down almost 30% year to date as the supply and demand equilibrium plays out. In theory, this should start working its way through to the supermarket shelves later in the year.
U.K. Market Performance
The FTSE 100 and mid and small cap indices had a solid rise on Monday before edging higher over the remainder of the short week. The FTSE 100 was up almost 4%. The divergence in performance between UK & European stocks and the U.S. continues.
FTSE 100 Movers
Gainers: Endeavour Mining +17.9%, Marks & Spencer +11.1%, Tesco +10.8%, Segro +10%, Associated British Foods +9.5%, Coca Cola Hellenic +9.2%, Phoenix Group +8.7%
Losers: Bunzl -22.8%, Barclays -10.3%, Melrose -6.8%. Polar Capital -6.6%, JD Sports -6.3%, Ashtead -6.2%, Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust -5.6%, Glencore -5.3%
Macroeconomic Data
BRC Retail Sales: April’s number remained at 0.9% from March vs. 0.5% estimate
Unemployment Rate: Remained steady at 4.4% as expected
Inflation: Headline inflation came down to 2.6% from 2.8% and slightly better than the 2.7% forecast. Core inflation was 3.4%. This may be temporary and watched closely next month, as there are price rises to come in certain elements of the inflation measurement basket.
Notable Corporate News
WH Smith Interim results for the 1H to Feb 2025 showed a loss of £43M compared to a £17M profit last year. Strong performance in its travel segment were offset by its recently sold high street stores.
Sainsbury’s rose 4% on Thursday to be the best performer in the FTSE 100 following a slight earnings beat. Although guidance for the new fiscal year was disappointing, the company highlighted broader concerns shared by peers in the supermarket sector about rising competition. British retailers have also voiced worries over the de minimis tax exemption, as low-cost Chinese goods are expected to be rerouted from the U.S. to Europe, increasing pressure on domestic prices.
U.S. Market Performance
Another poor result in a shorter week for US stocks. The yield on US 10-year treasuries came down from last week’s rout to 4.32% (prices up). The dollar continues to fall as the DXY US Dollar Index has come down almost 4% for the month. It was a week of tariffs, chips and political spats, culminating in Donald Trump lambasting the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, as “TOO LATE AND WRONG”, stating that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
Tech, communications and consumer discretionary sectors were worst off, energy and defensive sectors held firm.
Technical: the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average slipped below the 200-DMA on Monday, producing a “death cross” pattern that suggests a short-term correction could turn into a longer-term downtrend. The name of the indicator sounds scary, and it kind of is, but it is mostly an observation of a trend that has developed 2-10 months in the past. Whilst it is a bearish sign, like the announcement of a recession, it has no bearing on the future movement of stocks.
S&P 500 Movers
Gainers: Eli Lilly +13.7%, Newmont +12.7%, Mosaic +12.3%, Huntington Ingalls +11.5%, MarketAxess +10.3%, Dollar Tree +9.6%, Hewlett Packard +8.6%,
Losers: Charles River Laboratories -22.2%, UnitedHealth -21.7%, Global Payments -20.7%, Meta -12.9%, Super Micro Computer -10.2%, Southwest Airlines -10%
Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned Trump’s trade policies risked pushing inflation higher while weakening economic growth, adding policymakers needed more clarity before adjusting policy and they are in no rush to cut rates. Trump hit back on Thursday, saying in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, that Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough” and called for the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates.
Chipmakers: Nvidia shares slumped 9.2% on Wednesday after the chipmaking giant said late Tuesday that it expects to take up to a $5.5 billion first-quarter charge as a result of U.S. government controls on Chinese chip exports, which came after news of its $500bn commitment to manufacturing in the U.S. TSMC and ASML both managed to chalk up positive earnings results, however the later fell as orders came in below expectations.
Trade Talks: U.S. President Donald Trump said the country had made “big progress” in talks with Japan, one of the first rounds of face-to-face negotiations since his sweeping tariff imposition. Investors will be closely watching all negotiation talks with dozens of countries over the coming weeks for more clarity on the size and scope of tariffs on individual nations and sectors.
Macroeconomic Data
Consumer Inflation Expectations: Rose to 3.6% which was higher than the 3.1% estimated, indicating Americans are anticipating higher prices to come from the tariffs.
Retail Sales: Against the tide of negative economic data points, retail sales in the U.S surged the most in over 2 years by 1.4% in March surpassing market expectations. However, this masks a greater risk as it is likely attributable to tariff ‘front running’ as consumers bring forward planned purchases to beat price increases caused by tariffs. Cars and other big-ticket items were in demand as consumers scramble.
Industrial Production: Fell 0.3% for the month, slightly more than expected and down from +0.8% a month earlier.
Manufacturing Production: Fell to 0.3% as expected from 1% last month.
Building Permits/ Housing Starts: Completions down 2.1%, Single Family housing starts down 14.2%. However, US homebuilder confidence unexpectedly picked up in April, though sentiment remained subdued amid heightened economic uncertainty, according to National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo data.
Initial Jobless Claims came in below the 4-week average at 215k, this number is yet to pick up significantly.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -26.4 in April is its lowest reading since April 2020.
Notable Corporate Earnings
Goldman Sachs: GS reported strong Q1 earnings with EPS coming in at $14.12, up from $11.58 last year and well ahead of expectations of $12.33 per share FactSet consensus. Record equity trading volumes have given the company a boost, whilst Asset & Wealth Management revenue and Investment Banking fee revenues were down due to declining asset prices and delayed M&A and IPO activity.
Johnson & Johnson: shares ended down 0.5% after the company missed estimates for sales of medical devices, despite beating Wall Street estimates for first-quarter revenue and profit.
Bank of America Corporation: topped estimates for first-quarter profit as interest income grew, and its shares ended up 3.6%. Similar to the other banks reporting, equities trading revenue offset lower investment banking fees. In commentary, management suggested they do not forecast a recession.
Citigroup: Earnings per share rose to $1.96 from $1.58 a year earlier and surpassed the consensus on FactSet for $1.85. Revenue rose 3% to $21.60 billion, above Wall Street’s $21.26 billion view. CEO Jane Fraser looked past the current uncertainty over tariffs and said the U.S. will remain the world’s No. 1 economy.
ASML: Beat expectations. Quarterly earnings of €6.00 per share for the quarter ended March 31, higher than the same quarter last year, when the company reported EPS of €3.11. Whilst the company’s orders came in below expectations, it maintained its 2025 sales guidance of between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros.
Abbott Laboratories: affirmed its full-year outlook as the healthcare company reported first-quarter earnings above market expectations.
The Progressive Corporation: EPS of $4.37 was up form $3.94 last year, but below FactSet estimates of $4.79. Revenue for Q1 was higher than anticipated.
TSMC: upbeat results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) helped ease some gloom for the chip sector after Nvidia flagged steep costs from new U.S. export curbs.
UnitedHealth: plummeted 20% in premarket trading after lowering its annual profit forecast on expectations of high medical costs for the remainder of the year.
Netflix: Another record profit for Q1 which reported they have been unscathed by the U.S. economic woes. They beat their forecasted core metrics of revenue and operating margin. Although they have stopped reporting subscriber numbers, the company expects higher revenue growth for the next quarter due to previous subs price increases and a new stream of advertising revenue as it moves into sports and live events.
American Express: reiterated its full-year outlook on Thursday as consumer spending remained steady despite an uncertain economic backdrop. First-quarter results surpassed market estimates.
The Open: Monday 21st April
Given the Easter break, we are closed for the day in London, as well as Sydney, Hong Kong, Singapore and Europe. The Nikkei closed -1.3% in Tokyo, the Indian Nifty 50 closed higher by 1.15%, whilst the Shanghai Composite closed 0.45% higher on Monday. American share markets were back online on Monday, down significantly. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all down around the 2.5% mark. Tech, financials and consumer discretionary sectors the hardest hit, but all sectors down across the board. Bitcoin up by 2.6%, the US 10 year treasuries now yielding 4.41% and gold up over 3%.
Further commentary of impending recession and continue tariff worries have US investors in a risk off mood. Questions around the Fed’s independence has also weighed on sentiment following at Donald Trump’s calls for “termination” of Jerome Powell. There have also been few signs of progress on global trade talks.
Week Ahead: 22nd-25th April 2025
Market Themes to Watch
- Headline driven week ahead (again) – If there is one thing to expect this week, it is the unexpected. Pete Hegseth is in trouble again for leaking confidential military plans. Earth Day demonstrations targeting environmental rollbacks and perceived threats to civil liberties may add to political risk pricing. Concerns about Fed independence is currently under scrutiny as Donald Trump publicly lambasts Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
- Trade Negotiation progress – Lack of progress from a global trade perspective will continue to drive markets lower, whilst any deal announcements will offer a positive surprise. Significant negotiations are underway between the Unted States and Japan and the UK. China is now talking about reciprocal countermeasures for countries accepting deals with the U.S to further isolate China.
- Corporate Earnings – Q1 earnings continue to build this week ahead of a big week next week and beyond. Boeing, Google and Tesla are amongst the big names out this week.
- Tech regulation – A big week for big tech narratives. Google is facing a regulatory challenge from the Department of Justice to break up its monopolistic internet search business.
Upcoming Economic Data – U.K.
Macroeconomic commentary – BoE Speeches from Breeden (Tuesday & Wednesday), Bailey (Wednesday).
Production- S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Wednesday) and CBI Industrial Trends (Thursday).
Consumer Health GfK Consumer Confidence & Retail Sales (Friday).
Upcoming Economic Data – United States
Fed Speeches – Jefferson, Kashkari, Kugler and Harker (Tuesday), Beth, Goolsbee and Waller (Wednesday), Kashkari (Thursday).
Production Manufacturing and Services PMI (Wed) Durable Goods Orders (Thurs).
Property Market Data- New and Existing Home Sales.
Economic Growth Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Thursday).
Consumer Trends Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations- Final (Friday).
Upcoming Corporate Earnings
Industrials – GE Aerospace, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin, Boeing & Union Pacific.
Defence contractors are benefiting from heightened global tensions and rising defence budgets. GE Aerospace and RTX could show growth in jet engine and defence systems sales. Lockheed Martin may see upside from increased orders, but supply chain inflation remains a concern. Boeing remains a wildcard due to regulatory scrutiny, and China’s response to U.S. tariffs by refusing delivery of new aircraft.
Union Pacific will provide insight into freight volumes amid mixed economic signals. Investors will be keen to extrapolate insights and commentary on backlogged growth in defence contracts, aircraft delivery updates (Boeing), tariff-related cost pressures and supply chain commentary.
Tech, AI and Semiconductors – Alphabet (Google), IBM, ServiceNow, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Intel and Fiserv.
Tech giants are facing a change in the way the internet is used, rising cloud competition, and AI capex surges. Alphabet is under pressure to show monetisation of AI efforts, and demonstrate cloud growth. Intel will be closely watched under its turnaround strategy amid tariff impacts and pricing pressure. Texas Instruments and Lam Research offer visibility into chip demand in industrials and foundries. ServiceNow and Fiserv will offer a B2B software spending health check.
Read through on AI infrastructure spending and margins, semiconductor demand signals post-weak Q4, impact of tariffs/export controls and guidance for Q2 amid ongoing capex shifts will have significant market implications.
Healthcare, medical devices & pharma – Intuitive Surgical, Danaher, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Boston Scientific, AbbVie, Bristol Myers Squibb.
A strong quarter is expected in biotech and diagnostics after a subdued 2024. AbbVie and Bristol Myers are facing biosimilar competition on blockbuster drugs.
Thermo Fisher & Danaher should show stabilisation in lab instrumentation spend post-COVID slowdown. HCA offers a lens on hospital cost inflation and patient volumes.
Investors will be watching for clues on drug pipeline updates and pricing risks, M&A activity in biotech, hospital labour costs and capacity and diagnostic equipment demand.
Consumer Facing Companies, Staples and Telecoms – Tesla, Proctor & Gamble, Philip Morris, PepsiCo, Chipotle Mexican Grill, T-Mobile, AT&T, Verizon & Comcast.
Tesla is under pressure after a 13% drop in Q1 sales and recent price cuts; margins will be in focus. P&G, PepsiCo, and Philip Morris offer insights into consumer resilience amid sticky inflation. Chipotle will highlight the premium fast casual dining segment’s strength. Telecoms (T-Mobile, AT&T, Verizon, Comcast) face stagnant revenue growth and capex-heavy 5G investments.
Of note across these companies will be Tesla’s margin recovery and production guidance, consumer product price elasticity, input cost pressures and FX impact, wireless subscriber growth and broadband ARPU.
Insurance & Financial Services – Chubb, Fiserv, NASDAQ and CME Group.
Chubb expected to benefit from strong commercial premium growth, but severe weather could impact earnings. NASDAQ and CME will provide insight into capital markets health and significant trading activity. Investors will be watching combined ratio trends and catastrophe losses (Chubb), cross-border and crypto-related payment growth (Fiserv), options and futures trading volumes (CME) and trading and equity and derivatives listing pipeline (NASDAQ).
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