Week in Review: 5th-9th May
The winning streak on the FTSE 100 took a pause, however, it was still a solid week for UK and US stock market investors as risk on sentiment prevails again.
Equities have largely regained losses since liberation day.
| UK & US Equities (week ending 9/5) | Notable Markets (week ending 9/5) | ||||
| Index | Close 9/5 | Week | Market | Close 9/5 | Week |
| FTSE 100 | 8,544.80 | -0.60% | Gold Futures | 3,342.60 | 3.07% |
| FTSE 250 | 20504.37 | 1.30% | Bitcoin (Friday) | 103223 | 5.69% |
| FTSE AIM 100 | 3506.16 | 1.98% | UK 10yr GB Yield | 4.57% | 0.05% |
| S&P 500 | 5672.86 | -0.24% | CBOE Volatility (VIX) | 22.03 | -0.65 |
| Dow Jones | 41344 | -0.22% | Euro STOXX 50 | 5309.74 | 0.46% |
| NASDAQ 100 | 20,061.45 | -0.15% | GBP/USD | 1.3313 | 0.25% |
US-UK Trade deal: Trump posted on Truth Social: “….MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!” The process completely undermines the former world order set out under WTO. The 10% blanket tariff still applies for most UK goods, but concessions have been made on cars, steel and aluminium, jet engines and agricultural products. The can has been kicked down the road on pharmaceuticals, digital services tax and film and television with talk of a free trade agreement pushed to later time. The sticking point for the US was an even playing field for agricultural goods. While tariffs on US beef have been removed, Kier Starmer has promised not to relax food standards on the importing of hormone bred beef. Perhaps this has established a template for further negotiations with others. The minimum 10% flat rate across the board still applies and is probably the best outcome on the table, but there’s a couple of concessions on some of the heavier tariffed items and those deemed necessary for US strategic benefit.
The US Dollar has continued to fall but reaching key support level.
The rate path between the Band of England and US Federal Reserve continued to diverge as the BoE cut rates by 25 basis points whilst the Fed opted wait for more information before deciding its next move.
Bitcoin climbed back above $100,000, a leading indicator of risk on sentiment.
US China trade deal: April’s Chinese trade figures weren’t half bad. Exports up 8.1% and imports down a mere 0.2%, making a mockery of those doom-laden predictions following last month’s pre-tariff export splurge of 12.4%. China exported more to its other trade partners: Japan+ 7.8%, Taiwan +15.5%, Australia +5.8%, the EU +8.3%, and ASEAN +20.8%. The American market, though? Demand has fallen off a cliff, down 21% in April alone. Yes, tariffs have effectively closed a market of $580 billion in exports and China have lost their best customer, however, this only represents about 10% of their total exports, and as we have seen, these goods have now found new homes.
A breakthrough has emerged first thing this morning… a temporary pause in the trade war between China and the US.
U.K. Market Performance
In a shorter week, the FTSE 100 continued its winning run on Tuesday, before taking a brief pause mid-week and then another up day on Friday. Ending the week down around 0.5% and snapping a 3-week winning streak. The index has risen 19 out of the last 21 trading days up over 11% from its April lows, 4.67% year to date and is 3.5% away from its March 2025 highs.
FTSE 100 Movers
Gainers: International Consolidated Airline +12.3%, JD Sports +8.5%, Melrose Industries +7.5%, Endeavour Mining +6.5%, Bunzl +5.7%, Haleon +5.4%, Entain +5%
Losers: Marks & Spencer -6.7%, Centrica -6.3%, Standard Chartered -5.5%, BT Group -5%, GSK – 5%, Vodafone -4.9%, Anglo American -4.9%, Unite Group -4.2%
Macro
Interest Rates: As expected, the Bank of England cut interest rates, the fourth cut in rates since August last year. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favour of the cut, with two members voting to cut the rate by 50 bps to 4% and two to hold steady. Citing the medium-term inflation outlook, the MPC reiterated its “gradual and careful approach” to monetary policy decisions.
UK International Reserves Data – Tuesday: The latest figures on the UK’s international reserves will be published, providing insights into the country’s financial position
UK Construction PMI – The British construction sector saw a slight improvement in April amid a slower pace of reductions in residential and commercial building, though total activity continued to decrease across the sector, S&P Global said Wednesday.
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI came in at 46.6, up from 46.4 in March and the consensus estimate of 45.7.
Property Prices: The UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors house price balance decreased to -3% in April from 2% in March, according to data released Thursday.
Analysts expected a -5% reading for the month. However, the Halifax House Price index showed Britain’s average house prices rose 0.3% month over month in April, following a 0.5% drop in March. Annual growth of 3.2% was better than economist predictions.
Notable Corporate News:
NEXT: Next edged up its current year profit outlook for the second time in two months after first quarter full-price sales rose by a better-than-expected 11.4%.
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS: Holiday Inn owner InterContinental Hotels Group said it is on track to meet the full-year consensus profit estimate, defying industry peers’ forecast warnings over waning economic and consumer sentiment in the U.S.
BAE Systems: said it was confident of meeting 2025 forecasts and was well-positioned to capture additional defence spending in a rapidly evolving world in its AGM.
J D Wetherspoon: Spoons reported a 5.6% rise in like-for-like sales in the third quarter, as consumer spend and favourable weather drove demand for its food and beverages.
DoorDash will buy British meal delivery firm Deliveroo for 2.9 billion pounds ($3.85 billion), as a part of the U.S. online delivery platform’s plans to expand into international markets.
BP: As reported last week, there is speculation growing that Shell intends to takeover BP. Now all of the company’s biggest rivals — Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies, as well as Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, are running the numbers on whether making a bid for BP would make sense, per the FT citing unidentified people in the industry.
CYBERSECURITY: The British government will next week warn all UK companies to treat cyber security as an “absolute priority” in the wake of attacks on retailers. Marks & Spencer’s woes continue.
U.S. Market Performance
The S&P 500 index finished last week down 0.5%, snapping a 2-week winning streak. The week saw cautious digestion of the Fed’s interest rate commentary, a cheer for a UK trade deal, then nervousness ahead of the China trade negotiations. Consumer discretionary and industrials did well, whilst healthcare dragged as Trump signalled announcements on the costs of medicines.
S&P 500 Movers
Gainers: Insulet Corporation +21.8%, Microchip Technology +17.3%, Rockwell Automation +16.3%, Charles River Labs. +15.5%, Disney +15.4%
Losers: Vertex Pharma -16%, Moderna -12.6%, Regeneron Pharma -12%, Match Group -11.8%, Eli Lilly -11%, Merck -9.8%, Tyson Foods -9.4%, Amgen 8.8%
Macroeconomic Data
Fed Interest Rate: Decision & Press Conference (Wednesday) The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged.
ISM Services PMI: Monday came in slightly better than expected and still in expansion.
Balance of Trade: What used to garner little interest, will now be topical data for the White House with the size of the US trade deficit to show impacts of tariffs on imports and exports.
Notable Corporate Earnings
Technology, AI & Semiconductors: Palantir Technologies delivered a robust quarter topping revenue estimates, maintaining profitability, and raising its full-year outlook. Yet the stock dropped more than 9% in after-hours trading, reflecting the pressures of sky-high expectations and stretched valuation. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing sales are continuing to boom. It’s a good sign for companies providing artificial-intelligence infrastructure, although some of the boost is likely being driven by fears of tariffs. AMD also beat earnings expectations for Q1 and gave forecast second-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Tuesday, betting on robust demand for its artificial-intelligence chips even as trade tensions cloud the global economic outlook. Arista Networks reported stronger-than-expected results. Shares briefly jumped before settling 7.5% lower as the company said that margins may decline in the second quarter. Cloudflare reported in line earnings and better than expected revenue growth but gave slightly softer than expected guidance for its Q2 earnings. HubSpot reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share up 6% for the year and better than $1.76 consensus estimate. Applovin surged after beating quarterly estimates and revealing plans to sell its mobile gaming division, signalling a strategic shift toward its higher-margin ad tech business. At the same time, investors filed a lawsuit alleging the company misled them by manipulating ad data and overstating its AI ad platform’s performance. An allegation raised in a short seller research report and something the company denies.
Mobility & Digital Services
Consumer-facing digital and transport platforms have reported mixed results. Ford posted a 64% drop in Q1 profit and suspended its 2025 guidance due to tariff-related uncertainty, weighing on investor sentiment. Uber exceeded EPS expectations but missed revenue and bookings estimates; however, analysts remain upbeat, citing strong ride volumes and new tech investments. DoorDash saw strong order growth but disappointed on revenue, with attention turning to its Deliveroo takeover and international expansion efforts. Carvana surprised positively with a 46% jump in retail units sold and a 38% revenue increase, driving a double-digit rally in its shares as demand for vehicles gets pulled forward on tariff worries and the prices of used cars soar.
Industrials & Infrastructure
Industrial firms generally delivered strong updates, supported by infrastructure tailwinds and resilient end markets. Johnson Controls reported solid order growth and raised its full-year guidance on the back of strong HVAC demand. CRH continued to benefit from robust US infrastructure activity, despite European softness. Cummins saw record performance in power systems, while Emerson Electric and TransDigm impressed with strength in automation and aerospace aftermarkets, respectively.
Energy & Utilities
Energy names mostly beat expectations in a tough environment as capital discipline and cash returns drove results. Occidental Petroleum delivered EPS of $0.87, with higher free cash flow and ongoing deleveraging efforts in focus. Diamondback Energy highlighted strong operating efficiency and upstream metrics. The Williams Companies, a key natural gas player, reported stable fee-based earnings and modest YoY EPS growth, with attention on LNG export exposure. Utilities such as Duke Energy and Vistra are navigating pricing volatility and grid investment pressures in a high-rate environment.
Asset Managers & Financial Services
Alternative asset managers continued to benefit from secular flows into private markets. Ares Management delivered strong distributable earnings, buoyed by private credit demand. Brookfield posted gains across renewables and infrastructure platforms, and TPG gave updates on energy transition exposure. While investor appetite remains healthy, fee compression and exit timing continue to pose risks.
Commodities, Agriculture & Food Supply Chains
Commodity-linked food businesses have faced a tough environment amid margin compression and US drought conditions. Archer Daniels Midland saw earnings fall YoY, weighed by weaker ethanol pricing and softer oilseed crushing margins, though its nutrition unit showed some resilience. Tyson Foods remains challenged by high costs and unfavourable beef market dynamics, with the market closely monitoring its pricing discipline and supply chain stabilisation efforts.
Consumer Platforms, Travel & Media
Results in the consumer and travel space reflected a divergence based on pricing power and international exposure. Marriott posted robust RevPAR and strong bookings amid global expansion, while Disney met EPS estimates with a focus on streaming profitability and parks performance. Expedia disappointed on guidance despite solid reported earnings, and The Trade Desk rallied on a digital ad recovery. Electronic Arts shed light on gaming trends, while Tapestry and Warner Music offered insights into luxury retail and streaming resilience, respectively.
The Open: Monday 12th May
The FTSE 100 has opened the week higher on global optimism on US China trade negotiations. It is also green across the major European & Asian indices. The US and China have agreed to temporarily cut some tariffs for 90 days. China have cut their 125% tariffs on US goods to 10% and the Americans have cut their 145% tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%. US treasury yields rose, the US Dollar has strengthened, and US equity indices are looking like they’ll make a big jump when they open. S&P 500 futures up 2.5% and NASDAQ futures up over 3%.
Week Ahead: 12th to 16th May 2025
Market Themes to Watch
- Headline driven week ahead (again) – China trade negotiations front and centre. Donald Trump is in the Middle East
- Inflation – US CPI and retail sales will paint the picture of the deteriorating economic situation in America. Stagflation will be a word to dominate news feeds.
- Expectations of the American Consumer – The Michigan Consumer survey will give more soft data into the intentions and expectations of consumers.
- Follow effects from a falling US dollar – The global currency landscape is experiencing shifts, with the U.S. dollar’s dominance being challenged due to aggressive economic policies and financial sanctions.
- Corporate Earnings – Walmart is a barometer of the health of the American economy and will be closely watched.
UK Macro
Retail Sales: BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Tuesday)
Labour Market: Unemployment rate expected to modestly rise 0.1% to 4.5% (Tuesday)
Economic Growth: Preliminary GDP Figures revealed on Thursday with balance of trade, industrial and manufacturing production, and labour productivity figures.
Upcoming Economic Data – U.S.
Core Inflation rates and CPI will be published on Tuesday. Economists predicting to remain at 2.4%.
Thursday will be a big day. Producer Price Inflation PPI, Retail Sales, Initial Jobless claims, industrial production, manufacturing data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking, and property price data will also be released.
Friday delivers the Michigan Consumer Expectations survey results.
Notable Corporate Earnings
Retail & Consumer Goods
Walmart is a barometer into the health of the American consumer. Their report is expected to provide insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts anticipate an earnings growth rate of around 5% for the upcoming quarter. Discount retailer Ross Stores is forecasted to grow earnings by 6.6% and revenue by 5.3% per annum, with an EPS expected to grow by 8.1% per annum.
Fast casual food retailer CAVA Group anticipates a slowdown in earnings and revenue due to expansion-related expenditures, with an expected earnings growth rate of approximately 10%. Sandal maker Birkenstock is projected to report an earnings growth rate of about 12%, reflecting its continued global expansion and strong brand recognition. On Holding AG is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 13, 2025. Analysts anticipate earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24, reflecting a 36.8% decrease from the same quarter last year. However, revenue is projected to increase by 33.1% year-over-year.
Technology & Cybersecurity
Cisco Systems last reported strong Q2 results (fiscal year), with revenue reaching $14.0 billion, surpassing expectations. The company highlighted a significant increase in AI infrastructure orders, totalling approximately $700 million for the first half of FY25. Analysts forecast a modest earnings growth rate of around 2.5% for the upcoming quarter. CyberArk is anticipated to report a 38% revenue increase, driven by heightened demand for cybersecurity solutions. The company is expected to post an earnings growth rate of approximately 15% year-over-year. Dynatrace is projected to achieve an earnings growth rate of about 20% for the upcoming quarter, reflecting strong demand for its cloud-based monitoring solutions. Doximity is expected to report a 25% increase in earnings, supported by its expanding network of medical professionals and growing demand for telehealth services. Monday.com is projected to achieve an earnings growth rate of approximately 30%, driven by increased adoption of its work operating system across various industries.
Media & Entertainment
Fox Corporation is diversifying its revenue streams, projecting $500 million in annual revenue from non-cable ventures such as streaming and digital advertising. This strategic shift aims to mitigate the risks associated with traditional cable TV and adapt to changing consumer behaviours. Analysts expect an earnings growth rate of around 4% for the upcoming quarter.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is projected to achieve an earnings growth rate of approximately 15%, supported by the gaming industry’s continued growth and the company’s delayed release of the eagerly anticipated GTA VI.
Energy & Industrials
NRG Energy (NRG) plans to deliver a long-term cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) for Adjusted EPS of greater than 10%, measured from the midpoint of its raised 2024 guidance.
Deere & Co. (DE) is expected to report an earnings growth rate of approximately 7%, reflecting steady demand in the agricultural equipment sector.
Applied Materials (AMAT) is forecasted to grow earnings by 10.6% per year, with revenue growth at 5.8% per year.
UK-Based Companies
Compass Group (CPG) is projected to report an earnings growth rate of approximately 6%, driven by its global catering services and contract wins.
Experian (EXPN) is expected to achieve an earnings growth rate of around 8%, supported by increased demand for credit reporting and data analytics services.
Imperial Brands (IMB) anticipates a modest earnings growth rate of about 3%
Burberry (BRBY) is projected to report an earnings growth rate of approximately 5%, with attention to focus on expansion in Asian markets.
3i Group (III) is expected to achieve an earnings growth rate of around 7%, supported by its private equity investments and infrastructure projects.
Sage (SGE) is forecasted to grow earnings by 6%, reflecting steady demand for its accounting and payroll software solutions.
National Grid (NG) anticipates an earnings growth rate of approximately 4%, driven by its utility operations and infrastructure investments.
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